BY DAN VALENTI

PLANET VALENTI NEWS AND COMMENTARY

(FORTRESS OF SOLITUDE, THE WEEKEND EDITION OCT. 23-5) — Here’s an interesting column by Michael Cohen on Twitter, courtesy of The Boston Globe. It sums up his view of where the elections stands as of today. THE PLANET hopes it eases you into the weekend:

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BY MICHAEL COHEN

Election forecasters don’t often agree on much – and their disputes on social media can be intense. But there’s one area of general consensus: early voting is not predictive of what will happen on Election Day.

The reason is relatively simple: we don’t know what’s going to happen on Election Day. If tons of Democrats turn out for early voting or mail in ballots (and that’s currently happening), there’s no reason why Republicans can’t match that intensity on November 3.

Having said that, I think forecasters are slightly overstating their arguments. While it’s true that predicting the outcome of the race based on early voting is a mistake, we can still draw a few conclusions about what all those people waiting in line means.

The first and most obvious point is that early voting is off the charts. On Sunday, University of Florida professor Michael McDonald’s Elect Project database recorded 27.9 million early votes. As of this morning that number is at 45.8 million or 33.2 percent of the 2016 electorate. More than 65 percent of 2016 electorate in Texas has cast a vote and numerous states have topped the 35 percent mark. So the early voting numbers suggest that voter enthusiasm is high and turnout could reach record new levels.

That energy is more clearly evident among Democrats. As of last Sunday – and in the states that report party registration – Democrat had a 52.8 to 25.2 percent advantage. In Iowa, 44 percent of all registered Democrats have voted. Among Republicans, the number is 24 percent. In North Carolina 40 percent of registered Democrats have voted; Colorado is at 45 percent; New Jersey at 39 percent, and Nebraska at 35 percent.

Again, just because Democrats are beating a path to the polls doesn’t mean they are going to win on Election Day. But from a tactical standpoint it gives them a sizable advantage.

The first and most obvious reason is that if tens of millions of Democrats who have already voted that makes it far easier for Democratic campaigns to target those who have not yet cast a ballot. That means fewer phone calls and texts to voters; fewer rides to the polls, and a much more discrete get out the vote operation.

Second, if Republicans are relying on Election Day turnout that means they can’t afford for anything to go wrong. If there is rain or snow on November 3, which tends to deflate turnout, then the GOP could lose votes. What if there are further spikes in COVID-19 cases or what if polling stations are closed or short-handed because election workers test positive? If voters go to the polls today during early voting and there’s a long line and they don’t wait to wait (or can’t), they can come back the next day. That option won’t exist on Election Day. By banking so many votes ahead of time, Democrats are leaving a lot less to chance than Republicans.

The third factor is that based on current polling, Biden has a large lead over Trump, which means that the president needs to find some way to make up ground. Regular readers of this newsletter will know that I don’t expect that to happen, but the early voting numbers only heighten the challenge. If more than 30 percent of the 2016 electorate has voted – and they appear to be favoring his opponent – those are tens of millions of votes he has permanently lost any chance of winning.  Since the president is also far more susceptible to campaign miscues than Joe Biden, he runs the risk of further alienating more people before Election Day. Considering Biden has vastly more money than Trump and is dramatically out-spending the president, there’s a greater likelihood of the Democrat being able to persuade undecided voters than the incumbent. Moreover, if the polls continue to show Trump behind, on-the-fence voters may decide that it’s not worth the trouble of standing in line and potentially being exposed to a deadly virus for a guy who will likely lose anyway.

So while it’s foolish to make predictions based on early voting, one thing is clear – right now, it’s much better to be in the Biden campaign’s position than the president’s.

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Given all that, is this part one of an October surprise planned by Team Trump?

https://www.breitbart.com/2020-election/2020/10/22/npr-refuses-report-growing-biden-scandal-dont-want-waste-listeners-time/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_term=daily&utm_campaign=20201022

“A whistleblower CEO and Biden insider, Tony Bobulinski, released a public statement on Wednesday evening backing up the reporting of the New York Post from last week and claiming that he personally witnessed Democrat presidential nominee former Vice President Joe Biden discussing business deals with his son, Hunter Biden.

Sources familiar with the matter told Breitbart News that Bobulinski is the person whose allegations and inside information are the centerpiece of a forthcoming investigation by the Wall Street Journal. That Wall Street Journal story has not published yet, several days after the newspaper staff indicated to some the piece would come out—it is unclear why the Journal has not yet published—but President Donald Trump hinted on a conference call earlier this week that such a story was coming from the newspaper.

Bobulinski’s statement also seemingly authenticates at least one of the bombshell emails obtained by the New York Post,purportedly from Hunter Biden’s laptop retrieved from a computer repair store in Delaware. The statement also contradicts claims from some Democrats that a Russian disinformation campaign is at the center of the burgeoning scandal currently engulfing the Biden campaign in the final days of the election. Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) was reportedly listed as one of several “key domestic contacts” for a Chinese business venture proposed in 2017 by Hunter Biden and James Biden, the son and brother of former Vice President Joe Biden, respectively. “

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With THE PLANET‘s blessings,  you may draw from that what you will.

Have a great weekend, everybody.

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An idealist is one who, on noticing that a rose smells better than a cabbage, concludes that it is also more nourishing” — H. L. Mencken.

“OPEN THE WINDOW, AUNT MILLIE.”

LOVE TO ALL.

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